Montrose - Daily Press

James Shea

Daily Press Writer

MONTROSE — The drought in southern Colorado may not be over, according to a University of Colorado climatologist.

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For the last five years, Colorado and much of the Rocky Mountain West have confronted record-low levels of precipitation. The dry spell reached its crescendo in 2002, when drought scorched the earth, turning fields to dust and hurting the Colorado ski industry.

Over the last two years, Colorado has seen increased precipitation, bringing relief to many areas of the state.

“We are making good progress out of the drought,” National Resources Conservation Service Snow Survey Supervisor Mike Gillespie said.

But, Klaus Wolter, a climatologist at the University of Colorado, said a shift in the Pacific Ocean’s tropical waters could bring drought conditions back to southern Colorado and northern New Mexico. When the water warms, called an El Nino because it appears near Christmas, generally storms move south, hitting the southern Rockies. When the water cools, called a La Nina, storms generally hit the northern Rocky Mountain region.

Wolter said he started seeing a shift back to a La Nina weather pattern earlier this summer. The region saw El Nino weather from 1997 to 1999 and a La Nina from 1998 to 2000 and an El Nino trend over the last few years.

“It physically is going back to where we were at in the mid-1990s,” Wolter said.

In October, he predicted the northern mountains would get more snow this winter and the southern mountains would receive less, on the average. Based on the early trends, Wolter looks to be correct.

“It seems like a lot of the pieces of the puzzles ... are falling into place,” Wolter said.

He said the weather patterns could mean moderate snow fall for the Gunnison River Basin. On Tuesday, the basin had received 68 percent of normal snowfall. The Upper Colorado Basin had received 118 percent of normal and the Upper Rio Grande 23 percent of normal.

Wolter said Telluride, Ouray and the Crested Butte areas can fair well in a La Nina year because they get snow from both the north and the south. But the southern San Juan Mountains and the Sangre de Cristo Mountains only experience the southern weather pattern.

The early snow patterns have already impacted ski areas in Colorado. Steamboat Springs Ski Area has a 51-inch base at the summit, Crested Butte has a 24-inch base and Wolf Creek Ski Area, which touts itself as having the most snow in Colorado, has 17 inches at the summit.

“I’m amazed they are open” Wolter said of Wolf Creek Ski Area. “It’s pathetic.”

Nolan Doesken, a climatologist at Colorado State University, said the southern rockies have a history of switching from one extreme to another. Last year, the region got record amounts of snow. He said the bulk of the snow accumulated during a 10-day period due to a series of southern storms.

“The southern mountains are much more susceptible to extremes,” Doesken said.

Doesken said the Northern Rockies generally accumulate snow over a long, sustained period. Last year, the region got below average snowfall.

Both Doesken and Wolter said the early accumulations of snow in the Northern Rockies are no prediction of the future. The weather patterns can change quickly, but it appears the northern mountains will continue to get snow into early December.

“That is definitely what we are seeing, but will it continue?” Doesken asked.

“Just because it has been like this so far doesn’t mean it will continue, even though that is what I predict,” Wolter said.

He said people in the San Juan and Rio Grande River Basins should be concerned about low snow fall in early to mid-January. If the region is running at 20 percent of normal, residents and farmers should begin to worry.

“Certainly what snowfall has fallen so far is of relatively little significance,” Doesken said.

Wolter said 2003 is a good example. The northern mountains were running below average until a huge storm in March dumped massive snow, bringing the region above its normal average.

“That (storm) was one to tell your grandkids about,” Wolter said.

Contact James Shea via email at Jamess@montrosepress.com

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